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为了降低获取现场采样数据精确值的难度并提高事故诊断的准确性,根据模糊事故树和模糊Petri网均具有描述事件发生因果关系链这一共同特征,采用模糊Petri网来表示事故树,建立了事故树的模糊Petri网模型,在Petri网中对事故树进行了模糊分析研究.该方法不仅可以对顶上事件各特征量进行估算,还能利用模糊Petri网推理算法进行事故诊断,实现了Petri网与事故树的紧密结合,使事故诊断更加切合实际.引入模糊集合理论到事故树分析方法,用模糊数来表示事件发生的概率,减小了获取底事件发生概率精确值的难度,在一定程度上修正了事故概率统计数据的误差.该方法可以将生产现场的实测数据与专家经验数据结合起来,使得分析结果更接近于工程实际.图2,表1,参13.
In order to reduce the difficulty of obtaining the exact value of the sampled data in the field and improve the accuracy of the accident diagnosis, the fuzzy fault tree and fuzzy Petri nets all share the common characteristics of causal chains of events. Fuzzy Petri nets are used to represent the fault tree, The fuzzy Petri net model of the accident tree is used to carry out the fuzzy analysis of the accident tree in the Petri net.It can not only estimate the feature quantity of the overhead event but also make use of the fuzzy Petri net inference algorithm to diagnose the accident and realize the Petri nets’ The close combination of the network and the accident tree makes the accident diagnosis more practical.Improved the fuzzy set theory to the fault tree analysis method, the fuzzy number is used to represent the probability of occurrence and the difficulty of obtaining the exact value of the probability of the occurrence of the bottom event, To some extent, the error of accident probability statistics is corrected, which can combine the measured data of the production site with the empirical data of the experts to make the analysis results closer to the actual project.