本文以2000-2011年我国旅游总收入为样本区间,在回归预测、指数预测与二次移动平均预测三种单项预测方法的基础上,以预测误差平方和最小为准则,建立IOWA算子组合预测模型。对该模型的预测有效度进评价结果表明该组合预测模型能有效提高预测精度。 Based on China’s total tourism revenue from 2000 to 2011 as the sample interval, based on three single forecasting methods of regression prediction, exponential forecasting and quadratic moving average forecasting, taking the sum of squares of forecasting error as the criterion, Iowa operator combination forecast model. The evaluation of the model’s predictive validity shows that the combined forecasting model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.