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锚杆支护煤巷围岩变形具有非线性特征,本文基于围岩变形速度时间序列重构相空间的最大Lyapunov指数,建立了煤巷围岩变形速度的递进预测和非递进预测方法,并对木城涧煤矿+250m水平北石门三槽西四壁工作面中平巷两帮移近速度进行预测,结果表明:围岩变形速度具有混沌特性,且两帮变形速度比顶底板变形速度的混沌程度高;围岩变形速度的拟合效果好,误差较小;采用递进预测比非递进预测方法的预测效果好,最大可预测时间尺度为45 d,平均误差为10.99%。以递进预测结果为依据进行围岩补强支护实践,获得了满意效果。
The deformation of the surrounding rock of the coal roadway with bolt support is nonlinear. Based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the phase space reconstructed from the deformation rate of the surrounding rock, the progressive and non-progressive prediction methods of the surrounding rock deformation speed are established. The results show that the deformation speed of surrounding rock is chaotic, and the deformation speed of two gangs is higher than the deformation speed of roof and floor. The degree of chaos is high; the fitting speed of surrounding rock deformation rate is good, and the error is small; the prediction effect is better than non-progressive prediction method by using progressive prediction. The maximum predictable time scale is 45 days and the average error is 10.99%. Based on the progressive prediction results, the practice of surrounding rock reinforcement support was achieved, and satisfactory results were obtained.