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大米作为主要口粮,在保障粮食安全方面具有重要作用,其价格波动不仅会直接影响到农民的收入水平,而且与消费者的利益息息相关,大米价格稳定对于促进农民增收、保障粮食安全、保持经济社会健康稳定发展具有重要意义。运用多元线性回归、VAR、脉冲响应函数对大米价格进行实证分析,结果表明大米价格具有滞后性,汇率、农业生产资料价格、面粉价格、稻谷价格以及货币供应量都会对当期大米价格产生影响,影响最大的是农业生产资料价格。VAR的结果表明,CPI对大米价格的影响最大。
As the main rations, rice plays an important role in ensuring food security. Its price fluctuation will not only directly affect the income level of peasants, but also be closely related to the interests of consumers. The stability of rice prices is not only conducive to increasing incomes of peasants, ensuring food security and maintaining economic society The healthy and stable development is of great significance. The empirical analysis of the price of rice using multivariate linear regression, VAR, and impulse response function shows that the price of rice has a lag. The exchange rate, the price of agricultural means of production, the price of flour, the price of rice and the money supply all have an impact on the current price of rice. The largest is the price of agricultural means of production. The results of VAR show that CPI has the most impact on the price of rice.