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小麦白粉病是危害我国小麦生产的主要病害之一,华北黄淮地区作为冬小麦主产区,其小麦白粉病趋于加重。及时准确地进行白粉病的监测预警对采取有效防治措施、保护小麦安全生产有重大意义。基于北京市、天津市、河北省、山东省、山西省和河南省的小麦白粉病发生情况和气候特点,本研究量化了小麦白粉病对气候变化的响应水平,利用Bayes准则客观确定了小麦白粉病发生的等级阈值,考虑小麦生长前期和关键期的气象条件,提出了相应的评估模型。研究结果表明,所提模型完全一致的准确率为50%~90%,基本一致的准确率达85.7%~100%,能实时根据气象条件及时进行预警指导病害防治。
Wheat powdery mildew is one of the main diseases that endanger the production of wheat in our country. As the main winter wheat producing area in Huanghuai of North China, wheat powdery mildew tends to aggravate. The timely and accurate monitoring and early warning of powdery mildew is of great significance to take effective prevention and control measures and to protect the safety of wheat. Based on the occurrence and climatic characteristics of wheat powdery mildew in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and Henan provinces, this study quantified the response of wheat powdery mildew to climate change and objectively determined the wheat white powder The level of disease threshold, considering the meteorological conditions of early and critical wheat growth stage, put forward the corresponding assessment model. The results show that the accuracy of the proposed model is exactly 50% -90% and the accuracy of the model is 85.7% -100%. It can timely guide the disease prevention and control according to the meteorological conditions.