To mitigate the damages produced by flood discharges of hydropower stations, a three-dimensional numerical model of the aerated water jet restricted by gravity, air resistance and air buoyancy is proposed. Based on theoretical analysis and prototype data, a three-dimensional stochastic model is constructed using Monte Carlo method to evaluate the range of atomization and intensity of rainfall in gorges, which are strongly affected by complex terrain and various wind conditions. The prototype data observed from two hydropower stations are selected in the feedback and verification analysis to verify the proposed model. The result shows that the computational solutions fit the prototype data well. This model can be used to forecast the atomization of a hydropower station that is being designed or constructed.