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评价航天测控方案中的测控任务可靠性需要高效的方法,解析法和直接仿真都不能满足该要求。在介绍测控任务模型及其可靠性直接仿真法的基础上,基于不交化最小割集设计了实现近似零方差重要抽样的方法,并给出不交化最小割集的获取算法。通过案例分析,得出不交化最小割集最大获取数量越大,仿真收敛性越好,但相应地耗时也越多的结论。因此,实际应用中,需要在不交化最小割集获取数量与仿真时间二者间进行权衡。
To evaluate the reliability of the measurement and control tasks in the space flight measurement and control program needs an efficient method. Both the analytical method and the direct simulation can not meet the requirement. On the basis of introducing the measurement and control task model and its direct simulation method of reliability, a method of realizing approximate zero-variance important sampling is designed based on the non-intersecting minimum cut set, and the algorithm of obtaining the minimum cut set is given. Through case analysis, the conclusion is drawn that the larger the maximum acquisition amount of the minimum cut sets is, the better the convergence of the simulation is, but the more time consuming it is. Therefore, in practical application, we need to trade off the number of acquisitions and the simulation time without intersecting the minimum cut set.