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与经济周期相联系,一国的对外贸易也存在周期性,即国际贸易周期或对外贸易周期。国际贸易周期分为进口贸易周期和出口贸易周期。中国的进口贸易周期决定于中国的经济周期,而中国的出口贸易周期则决定于世界经济周期。无论是进口贸易周期还是出口贸易周期,都存在扩张期和收缩期两个阶段。本文运用朱格拉周期理论,通过分析对外贸易周期与经济周期的相关关系,试图揭示中国对外贸易周期的变动规律,旨在为政府在经济周期和国际贸易周期的不同阶段制定不同的贸易政策奠定理论基础。
In connection with the economic cycle, a country’s foreign trade also has a cyclical nature, namely, the international trade cycle or the foreign trade cycle. International trade cycle is divided into import trade cycle and export trade cycle. China’s import trade cycle depends on China’s economic cycle, while China’s export trade cycle depends on the world economic cycle. Both the import trade cycle and export trade cycle, there are two stages of expansion and contraction. By analyzing the relationship between foreign trade cycle and economic cycle, this paper attempts to reveal the changing rules of China’s foreign trade cycle with the purpose of laying a theoretical foundation for the government to formulate different trade policies at different stages of the economic cycle and international trade cycle basis.