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1972年,美国总统尼克松进行了两次具有划时代意义的访问:一次是去中国,另一次是去苏联。报纸上连篇累牍的都是对访问能否成功的预测。对以色列希伯来大学的巴鲁克·菲什霍夫教授来说,尼克松的访问给他研究“事后之明”提供了好机会。
In 1972, U.S. President Nixon made two epoch-making visits: one went to China and the other went to the Soviet Union. The newspaper is full of predictions on the success of the visit. For Baruch Fischhoff, professor at the Hebrew University in Israel, Nixon’s visit provided him with a good opportunity to study “what’s after”.