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把服务贸易进口与出口两个方面结合起来,构建VAR模型的基础上,运用现代协整理论与冲击分解等计量方法,对我国服务贸易出口、服务贸易进口、服务业发展之间的长期和短期互动关系进行实证研究。结果表明:从长期看,三者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,服务业发展是服务贸易出口增长的Granger原因。从短期看,服务业发展的短期波动受服务贸易进口和服务贸易出口短期变化的影响,其中,服务贸易出口的短期均衡调整力度更为显著。同时,冲击分解结果表明,来自服务业发展的冲击对服务贸易进口和服务贸易出口变化的贡献率都较大。
Based on the combination of import and export of service trade and the construction of VAR model, this paper uses the modern co-integration theory and impact decomposition to measure the long-term and short-run between the export of service trade, the import of service trade and the development of service industry. Interactive relationship for empirical research. The results show that in the long run, there exists a stable equilibrium relationship among the three, and the development of service industry is the Granger cause of the export growth of service trade. In the short run, short-term fluctuations in the development of service industries are affected by the short-term changes in the import of service trade and exports of service trade. Among them, the short-term balanced adjustment of export of service trade is even more pronounced. At the same time, the results of the impact decomposition show that the impact from the development of service industry contributes more to the changes of export of service trade and service trade.