去年底,笔者曾通过对当年种猪、生猪补栏情况的分析,大胆预测今年第二季度后,国内活猪价格将出现明显下跌。果然,近期,国内各地猪价出现明显下跌,预计,随着后市生猪出栏的不断增加以及疫病的影响,猪价仍将保持持续下跌之势。随着各地猪价的回落,养猪盈利已经从头均盈利150元以上的高利润区回落至50-150元的正常盈利区,养猪盈利有可能在6月份跌至微利区,在三季度跌至盈亏平衡线附近。 By the end of last year, I had analyzed the situation of pigs and pigs in the current year and boldly predicted that after the second quarter of this year, the price of domestic live pigs will obviously drop. Sure enough, in the near future, there has been a marked drop in the price of pigs in various parts of the country. It is estimated that with the continuous increase of pig slaughter in the market and the impact of the epidemic, pig prices will continue to fall. With the fall of pork prices in various places, pig profitability has dropped from the profit-making high of above 150 yuan per head to the normal profit-making area of ​​50-150 yuan. The profitability of pig raising may drop to the small profit-making area in June, Near the breakeven line.