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运用单位根、格兰杰因果检验和自向量回归模型,利用我国1953~2007年的样本数据,对我国的能源消费、二氧化碳排放、经济增长之间的动态关系进行计量分析。研究认为能源消费、二氧化碳排放和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。运用格兰杰因果关系检验发现能源消费、二氧化碳排放对经济增长同时存在长期和短期的因果关系,而能源消费是二氧化碳排放的原因。另外,VAR从脉冲响应函数和方差分解的结果可以看出能源消费对经济增长作用明显,而经济增长、能源消费对二氧化碳排放作用明显。因此,我国要实现碳排放目标,肯定要牺牲一定经济增长速度。从长远来看,要使经济与环境获得双赢,必须要调整我国能源结构,发现化石能源的替代能源,提高能源效率。
Using unit root, Granger causality test and self-vector regression model, using the sample data from 1953 to 2007 in our country, the dynamic relationship between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in China was measured and analyzed. Research suggests there is a long-run equilibrium between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. The use of Granger causality test found that energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions on the economy there are both long-term and short-term causal relationship, and energy consumption is the cause of carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, VAR from the impulse response function and variance decomposition results can be seen that the role of energy consumption in economic growth significantly, and economic growth, energy consumption has obvious effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, China must achieve the goal of carbon emissions at a certain speed of economic growth. In the long run, for a win-win economic and environmental situation, we must readjust our energy structure, find alternative sources of fossil energy and improve energy efficiency.