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本文简要介绍了系统动力学,分析了城市水污染控制系统的特点,然后以洛阳城市为例,建立了该城市排污控制子系统的SD模型。该模型以8个水平变量为核心,共选择了157个参、变量,其中待估参、变量的确定运用了历史统计、类比、选用规划值以及灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测等手段。并对摸型做了有效性检验,其结果是令人满意的。在模型的实际应用中,选定了6个决策点和决策变量组作为决策变量,依此设计了6个策略。经对所有策略的运行结果分析,从中得出反映该系统最佳运行状态的策略5,该策略可作为决策者的供选方案。
This article briefly introduces the system dynamics, analyzes the characteristics of the urban water pollution control system, and then uses the Luoyang city as an example to establish the SD model of the city’s sewage control subsystem. The model takes 8 horizontal variables as the core, and a total of 157 parameters and variables are selected. Among them, the determination of parameters and variables to be estimated uses historical statistics, analogies, selected planning values, and gray system GM (1,1) model prediction and other means. . A validity test was performed on the model and the result was satisfactory. In the practical application of the model, six decision points and decision variable groups were selected as decision variables, and six strategies were designed accordingly. After analyzing the results of all the strategies, the strategy 5 that reflects the best running status of the system is obtained. This strategy can be used as a selection scheme for decision makers.