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三峡水库建成、南水北调逐步实施和沿江抽水加剧将使下一世纪长江入海水沙特征发生重大变化;长江口相对海面在未来100年中将上升1m左右;全球气温上升将使本区夏季降水增多、台风频率增大。下世纪在这些因素影响下:(1)长江口海岸工程需增加投入约相当于现有工程量的1/2,方能维持现有的安全系数;(2)潮滩湿地将动态损失相当于现有面积的50%以上;(3)冲刷岸段将增多,淤涨岸段将减少;(4)洪涝威胁将明显加重,需将抽排水能力提高4~5倍;(5)因海面上升引起的特枯季节灾害性海(咸)水入侵则可望通过三峡水库的调节功能得以控制。
The completion of the Three Gorges Reservoir, the gradual implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the intensification of pumping along the Yangtze River will bring about major changes in the characteristics of water and sediment entering the sea in the next century. The relative sea level in the Yangtze Estuary will rise by about 1m over the next 100 years. Increasing global temperatures will increase summer precipitation in the region, Typhoon frequency increases. In the next century, under the influence of these factors, (1) the Yangtze River Estuary Coastal Project needs an increase of about half the amount of existing works to maintain the existing safety factor; (2) (3) The scouring shore section will increase and the silt-up section will decrease; (4) The threat of flood will be obviously increased, and the pumping and drainage capacity will need to be increased by 4 to 5 times; (5) It is expected that the disastrous sea (salty) water invasion in the special dry season will be controlled through the regulation function of the Three Gorges Reservoir.