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结合玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特水文站1954—2007年的逐月径流及流域内气候资料,利用小波多尺度分析、混沌理论与周期性叠加趋势模型研究了玛纳斯河径流的非线性特征及影响因素。结论如下:①玛纳斯河径流变化的周期分别在15、18和22 a,并在18 a处最为显著;②玛纳斯河径流变化呈现复杂的非线性特征,其关联维为3.317 8,是非整数,这意味着其径流变化具有分形和混沌特性;③根据周期性叠加趋势模型,2007年后的7 a内玛纳斯河径流仍将保持上升趋势;④玛纳斯河径流与NAO关系密切,在夏季表现为负相关且相关性最强,其次在冬季为较强的正相关,在全年关联性最差,并且两者存在多尺度的复杂相关性;⑤NAO通过气流循环影响该流域的气候变化进而作用于径流。
Based on the monthly runoff from 1954 to 2007 and the climatic data in the basin, the non-linear characteristics of Manas River runoff and the nonlinear characteristics of Manas River runoff were studied by using wavelet multiscale analysis, chaos theory and periodic superimposed trend model. Influencing factors. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The period of runoff variation in Manasi River is 15, 18 and 22 a respectively, and it is the most significant at 18 a. (2) The runoff variation of Manasi River presents complex nonlinear characteristics with a correlation dimension of 3.317 8, Which means that the runoff has fractal and chaotic characteristics. (3) According to the periodic superimposed trend model, the runoff of Manas River will continue to increase within 7 years after 2007. ④ The relationship between Manas River runoff and NAO Close, negative correlation and strongest correlation in the summer, followed by a strong positive correlation in winter and the worst correlation in the whole year, and there was a multi-scale complex correlation between the two. ⑤NAO affected the watershed through the air circulation The climate change in turn affects runoff.