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基于全国住宅总投资规模的数据特征,将住宅投资的发展进行了阶段划分,并构建动态面板系统GMM模型,利用1999-2013年中国省际面板数据,比较分析了住宅总投资、商品房投资、经济适用房投资、别墅与高档公寓投资在两个不同阶段对经济增长的影响。研究表明:在两个阶段中,住宅总投资、商品房投资对经济增长的影响方向均由正向变为负向,对经济增长的影响逐渐恶化;经济适用房投资对经济增长的影响由负向变为正向,对经济增长的影响不断好转;别墅与高档公寓投资对经济增长的影响均为正向,但影响程度在高速增长阶段略有降低。
Based on the data characteristics of the national total investment scale, the development of residential investment is divided into stages and a dynamic panel system GMM model is constructed. Based on the panel data of China’s provinces from 1999 to 2013, this paper compares the total investment, real estate investment, economy Housing investment, villas and high-end apartment investment in two different stages of economic growth. The research shows that in both stages, the impact of total residential investment and real estate investment on economic growth changes from positive to negative, and the impact on economic growth is gradually deteriorating. The impact of economic housing investment on economic growth changes from negative to negative The impact on economic growth has been continuously improved; the impact of investment in villas and high-end apartments on the economy has been positive, but the impact has been slightly reduced during the period of rapid growth.