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流动性现在是零和游戏:美国零成本的资金正在减少,这意味着现在推动金融市场上涨的力量,来自资产的重新配置。市场正在接近一个点,即股价只有以债券收益上升为代价才会上升。弱美元和美国低利率已经引致中国的投资泡沫:由于中国将货币与美元挂钩,其出口价格取决于美国消费需求。因美元疲弱,美国的消费需求转向成本最低的中国产品。而中国的高储蓄率,将这些额外的收入转成了投资,强劲的投资需求,正在引发更多的投资。2004将令人失望,因为中国投资放慢,且美国资金减少:中国正减慢投资,以避免在经济周期高峰形成过剩产能、导致损失;美国的新增资金在减少,因为市场的乐观情绪已经吸纳了所有的多余资金。这两个因素的共同作用,可能使2004年让股市投资者失望,重现1994年的情形。
Liquidity is now a zero-sum game: Zero-cost funds in the United States are declining, meaning that the forces driving the rise in financial markets now come from the reallocation of assets. The market is approaching a point where stock prices only rise at the expense of rising bond yields. Weak U.S. and low interest rates in the United States have led to China’s investment bubble: Since China linked its currency to the U.S. dollar, its export price is dependent on U.S. consumer demand. Due to the weak dollar, the consumer demand in the United States has shifted to the lowest-cost Chinese products. And China’s high savings rate translates these extra incomes into investment, and strong investment demand is triggering more investment. 2004 will be disappointing as China’s investment slows down and US funding goes down: China is slowing down its investment to avoid excess capacity at the peak of the business cycle, causing losses; new US funding is declining as market optimism has been absorbed All the extra money. The combined effect of these two factors may disappoint investors in the stock market in 2004 and reproduce the situation in 1994.