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作者对连江县历年松毛虫发生资料进行总结,归纳成不同虫灾级别和各种引起松毛虫发生的主导因子的级别。根据1960—1976年的虫灾级及因素级编成表,应用数量概率回归估计方法,建立多元回归方程的数量化模型,得出预报计算方法,并在1978、1979、1980三年的生产中进行回报,回报的结果是与实际情况相符,证明此方法可应用于实践。
The author summarizes the occurrence data of Dendrolimus punctatus in Lianjiang County over the past years and summarizes the levels of various pest levels and various dominant factors that cause the occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus. Based on the table of worm plague and factor grade compiled from 1960 to 1976, we applied the method of quantitative and probabilistic regression estimation to establish the quantitative model of multivariate regression equation, and obtained the forecast calculation method and carried out the production in 1978, 1979 and 1980 three years The result of return and return is in line with the actual situation, proving that this method can be applied to practice.