在未来气候变化对作物影响的研究基础上，分析未来不同气候情景对南京地区小麦生长发育、产量形成的影响，并考虑了紫外辐射变化的影响。采用数值模拟方法具体估算了温度升高、降水变化、ＣＯ２ 浓度上升及紫外辐射增强对南京地区小麦产量的影响。计算结果表明：未来ＣＯ２ 增加可提高小麦产量，气温升高、降水变化及紫外辐射增强均使得小麦产量有所降低。 Based on the study on the impact of climate change on crops in the future, the effects of different climate scenarios on the growth and yield formation of wheat in Nanjing in the future were analyzed, and the effects of UV radiation changes were considered. The effect of temperature increase, precipitation change, CO2 concentration and ultraviolet radiation on wheat yield in Nanjing was estimated by numerical simulation. The results show that in the future, the increase of CO2 will increase wheat yield, raise the temperature, change the precipitation and enhance the ultraviolet radiation, which will decrease the yield of wheat.