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选取全球主要国家和地区的能源系统为研究对象,对它们能源消费的规模、结构与效率在空间上的差异进行了分析,之后,采用递阶偏最小二乘(Hi_PLS)模型对能源消费量的主要影响因素进行了辨析,结果表明:①能源消费总量主要集中在北半球或北美、欧亚大陆及亚洲。人均能耗较高的国家则主要集中在油气资源丰富的区域或经济发达区;②结构方面,中东四国油气所占比例受其油气资源禀赋影响非常显著,它们除油气外的其它能耗几乎为0;③效率方面,能耗效率较高的国家主要分布在中南美、欧洲、欧亚大陆及亚太地区,而北美、中东和非洲地区的国家能耗效率则较低;④全球尺度,对能源消费量增长最重要的影响因素为交通业与信息产业的活动(包括基建),其次为医疗业及其它一般意义上的经济活动,最后就是人们投入研发以及从事农业等的活动。人口的自然增长及其结构因素与人们从事教育的活动对能源消费量增长的促进作用不大。据此,提出了一些减缓全球能源消耗,促进各国向低碳清洁的可持续发展模式转变的对策建议,供决策者参考。
The energy systems of the major countries and regions in the world are selected as the research objects, and the spatial differences of their scale, structure and efficiency of energy consumption are analyzed. Then the Hi_PLS model is used to analyze the energy consumption The main influencing factors were analyzed. The results showed that: ① The total energy consumption mainly concentrated in the northern hemisphere or North America, Eurasia and Asia. The countries with higher per capita energy consumption are mainly concentrated in areas with rich oil and gas resources or economically developed areas; (2) In terms of structure, the proportion of oil and gas resources in the four countries in the Middle East is significantly affected by their oil and natural gas resource endowments, and their energy consumption except oil and gas is almost 0; ③ In terms of efficiency, the countries with higher energy efficiency are mainly located in Central and South America, Europe, Eurasia and Asia-Pacific, while the countries in North America, the Middle East and Africa have lower energy consumption efficiency. On the global scale, The most important influencing factors for the growth of consumption are the activities of the transport and information industries (including infrastructure), followed by the medical industry and other economic activities in general, and finally the activities of people engaged in research and development and agriculture. The natural population growth and its structural factors have little effect on the promotion of energy consumption growth as people’s education activities. Accordingly, some countermeasures and suggestions for mitigating the global energy consumption and promoting the transition from low-carbon clean-up to sustainable development in various countries are put forward for policy-makers’ reference.