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本文对传统的经常项目现值模型进行扩展,建立允许利率和汇率变动并区分贸易品和不可贸易品的扩展模型,运用VAR方法验证中国的贸易余额波动是否符合跨时最优模型的预测。结果表明,扩展后的跨时现值模型对实际经常项目的波动有着很好的解释力。当国内投资、政府支出、国民收入变动引起国内净产出发生变化时,中国的贸易余额在一定程度上充当了平滑跨时消费的工具。利率和汇率的变动也会导致资本项目变化,通过贸易差额和外资投资收益来影响经常项目。因此,调节我国经常项目余额波动不但需要考虑本国居民的即期和远期消费预期,还要加强国际间汇率和利率政策的协调。
This paper expands on the traditional current-account current value model, establishes an extended model that allows changes in interest rates and exchange rates and distinguishes between tradable goods and non-tradable goods, and uses the VAR method to verify whether China’s trade balance fluctuations are consistent with the prediction of the cross-time optimal model. The results show that the extended cross-time value model has good explanatory power to the fluctuation of the actual current account. When domestic investment, government expenditures, and changes in national income cause changes in domestic net output, China’s trade balance serves as a tool for smooth spending across time. Changes in interest rates and exchange rates can also lead to changes in capital projects, affecting current accounts through trade balances and foreign investment returns. Therefore, adjusting the volatility of China’s current account balances not only needs to take into account the immediate and long-term consumer expectations of local residents, but also strengthens the coordination of international exchange rate and interest rate policies.