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随着市场化国际收支调节机制建设加快,外汇市场运行的微观基础悄然改变,当前人民币汇率有升值压力而无升值预期,远期汇价主要反映本外币利差方向2014年上半年,随着人民币汇率双向浮动区间扩大,我国跨境资本流动再次呈现有进有出的振荡格局,国际收支自主性平衡能力进一步增强,市场化国际收支调节机制建设取得了新的进展。人民币汇率形成市场化改革提速汇率双向波动的宏微观条件逐步具备。从宏观层面看,自2010年起经常项目顺差与GDP之比已降至国际认可的合理标准以内,2013年该比例为2%,2014年上半年进一步降至1.8%,同比回落0.7个百分点(见图1)。从微观层面看,资本流动对国
With the acceleration of market-oriented international balance of payment adjustment mechanism, the microscopic foundation of the foreign exchange market operation has quietly changed. At present, the exchange rate of RMB has the pressure of appreciation without appreciating appreciation. The forward exchange rate mainly reflects the direction of spread between domestic and foreign currencies. In the first half of 2014, The two-way floating range of exchange rate expanded. The cross-border capital flows in our country once again showed the pattern of oscillations in and out of the economy. The ability to balance the autonomy of the balance of payments was further strengthened and new progress was made in the establishment of the market-based balance of payments adjustment mechanism. The macro and micro conditions for the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and market-oriented reform have been gradually established. At a macroeconomic level, the current account surplus to GDP ratio has fallen below the internationally accepted fair standard since 2010, at 2% in 2013 and further down to 1.8% in 1H14, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% see picture 1). At the micro level, capital flows to the country