猜不对,没啥用;猜对了,又如何?新年到了,各类机构依循惯例,举行各种展望论坛,对未来一年市场走势进行预测,众多股民也四处打探,翘首聆听,生怕错失下一次机会。这种热闹情形,让我想起大约二十年前读到“巴布森突变”的故事。1921年到1929年9月,美国股市蓬勃繁荣,反复向上,上涨了七八倍。在长期的高歌猛进之后,人们陷入一种持久的狂欢 Guess right, no use; Guessing, and how? New Year arrived, all kinds of institutions in accordance with established practice, held a variety of outlook forums, forecast the market trend of the coming year, many investors are also around to probe, eagerly listen, for fear of missing a chance. This brisk situation reminds me of the story of “Babushon Mutation” read about twenty years ago. From 1921 to September 1929, the U.S. stock market thrived and rose repeatedly, up seven or eightfold. After a long triumph, people are caught in a lasting carnival