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理论机制分析认为,贸易开放会通过经济发展水平、人力资本及环境管制强度等渠道对我国的环境污染产生影响。鉴于此,文章基于全国30个地区1997~2014年的省际面板数据,构建面板数据门槛回归模型,对贸易开放影响我国人均碳排放的门槛效应进行实证分析。研究结果发现,我国贸易开放显著存在人均收入、人力资本及环境管制强度的门槛效应。具体影响机制为:高水平的人均收入有利于发挥贸易的碳排放抑制效应;人力资本越高,贸易开放促进碳排放减少的效果也越为明显,故各地应稳步推进人力资本积累;适度的环境管制强度有利于贸易的污染减排效应,管制过低或过高都将使得贸易增加碳排放。
Theoretical analysis suggests that the opening up of trade will affect our country’s environmental pollution through such channels as economic development level, human capital and environmental control intensity. In view of this, based on the provincial panel data from 1997 to 2014 in 30 regions across China, this paper builds a threshold regression model of panel data to empirically analyze the threshold effect of the impact of trade openness on China’s per capita carbon emissions. The results show that there is a significant threshold effect of per capita income, human capital and environmental control intensity in China’s trade liberalization. The specific impact mechanism is that a high level of per capita income is conducive to exerting the carbon emission restraint effect of trade; the higher the human capital, the more obvious the effect of trade liberalization to promote the reduction of carbon emissions; therefore, the accumulation of human capital in all places should be steadily promoted; the moderate environment The intensity of regulation is conducive to the pollution reduction effect of trade. Too low or too high regulation will lead to increased carbon emissions in trade.