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人的个体行为对传染病在人群中的传播动态具有重要影响。研究和确定个体自适应行为与疫情发展态势之间的关系,是制定科学的信息发布和心理疏导机制从而做到有效防控疫情、避免社会恐慌的主要基础。该文旨在研究面对传染病大规模传播时,个体自适应行为的触发机制及其对传染病传播动力学的影响。通过分析SARS以来几次大规模突发传染病疫情下个体行为实证数据,确认了两种主要的信息源即公共信息和局部信息对个体自适应行为的诱导作用,并采用健康信念模型描述个体自适应行为的演化机制,采用复杂网络模型分析了自适应行为改变对疫情发展动态的影响。突发新发传染病疫情下的实时公共信息和局部信息诱导个体做出自适应的规避行为,从而降低了感染疾病的概率,有效地抑制了疫情的发展。个体自适应行为对传染病传播动力学具有重要的影响,有效的信息发布机制将诱导个体自适应行为的产生,进而对疫情防控产生积极效果,并可避免社会恐慌的产生。
The individual behavior of people has an important influence on the spread of infectious diseases in the population. Studying and determining the relationship between individual adaptive behavior and the epidemic situation is the main basis for formulating a scientific information release and psychological counseling mechanism so as to effectively prevent and control the epidemic and prevent social panic. This paper aims to study the triggering mechanism of individual adaptive behavior and its influence on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases in the face of large-scale transmission of infectious diseases. By analyzing the empirical data of individual behaviors in several large-scale epidemic outbreaks since SARS, two major information sources, public information and local information, have been identified to induce individual adaptive behavior. The model of health belief Adaptation behavior evolution mechanism, the use of complex network model analysis of the impact of adaptive behavior changes on the development of the epidemic. The real-time public information and local information in the outbreak of a new outbreak of infectious diseases induce individuals to make adaptive evasion behavior, thus reducing the probability of infection and effectively suppressing the development of the epidemic. Individual adaptive behavior has an important impact on the dynamics of transmission of infectious diseases. An effective information release mechanism will induce the generation of individual adaptive behaviors, which will have a positive effect on the prevention and control of epidemic situations and will avoid social panic.