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结合吉林省玉米生产情况,分析玉米生产中自然灾害风险大小与发生规律,采用信息扩散理论风险概率评估模型,测算玉米生产中主要灾害因子的发生概率,构建气象灾害产量影响因素分析模型,估计影响吉林省气象灾害产量的主要因素。结果表明,吉林省玉米生产自然灾害风险较大,水、旱灾害发生的概率较高,是导致玉米灾害产量形成的主要原因。
Based on the maize production in Jilin Province, the risk and the occurrence of natural disasters in maize production were analyzed. The probability of occurrence of major maize factors in maize production was estimated by using information diffusion theory risk probability model. The influence factors of meteorological disasters yield were analyzed and estimated Main Factors of Meteorological Disaster Yield in Jilin Province. The results showed that the natural disaster risk of maize production in Jilin Province was relatively high, and the probability of occurrence of water and drought disasters was high, which was the main reason of the maize disaster yield formation.