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对东盟国家的出口量进行预测是我国更好制定或调整对东盟外贸政策的重要前提。东盟国家国情差异较大,单一预测方法不能准确预测出口量,综合考虑东盟国家经济发展水平、中国对其出口量以及与中国关系将东盟划分为三个国家集群。根据每种预测方法的适用范围不同,选用三次指数平滑法预测中国对第一、二集群国家出口量,改进的多层递阶回归算法预测中国对第三集群国家出口量。最后根据对东盟出口量的预测结果以及考虑双方未来的合作潜力,提出对策建议。
Forecasting the export volume of ASEAN countries is an important prerequisite for our country to better formulate or adjust its foreign trade policy toward ASEAN. ASEAN countries have different national conditions, and the single forecast method can not accurately predict the export volume. Considering the economic development level of ASEAN countries, China divides ASEAN into three clusters for its exports and relations with China. According to the different scope of application of each forecasting method, we choose three exponential smoothing method to forecast China’s exports to the first and second cluster countries. The improved multi-level regression algorithm predicts China’s exports to the third cluster country. Finally, based on the forecast of ASEAN’s export volume and considering the potential for cooperation between both parties in the future, suggestions are put forward.