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用贝叶斯方法求解泊松分布参数估计量，得到微观路段事故发生次数理论值预测模型和概率预测模型，并提出用累积概率表确定事故预测区间的方法，较好地解决了路网中某地点事故预测的难题。
The Bayesian method is used to solve the parameter estimation of Poisson distribution, and the theoretical predictive model and probabilistic predictive model of the number of accidents on the micro-section are obtained. The method of using the cumulative probability table to determine the predictive section of the accident is proposed, Location accident prediction problem.