我们在年初指出,2014年亚洲新兴市场的经济走势在很大程度上决定于作用方向相反的两项因素:一是发达市场的经济加速能在多大程度上提升亚洲新兴市场的出口,二是过量信贷的收缩和企业低盈利导致的偏紧的政策和金融环境将对内需构成多大压力。低迷的1季度过后,发达市场经济增速已经回升,2季度亚洲出口也随之走强。大中华地区出口率先复苏,预计其他经济体也将在下半年跟进。然而, We pointed out at the beginning of the year that the economic trends in emerging Asian markets in 2014 are largely determined by two factors that have opposite directions of action: firstly, to what extent can the accelerated economic performance of the developed markets boost the exports of emerging markets in Asia; and secondly, the excess The tight domestic demand caused by the contraction of credit and the tight policy and financial environment caused by the low profitability of enterprises will put pressure on the domestic demand. After the downturn in the first quarter, the developed-market economic growth has picked up and the Asian exports have also strengthened in the second quarter. Greater China exports the first recovery, is expected to follow up in the second half of other economies. however,