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长期以来,尽管关于国际资本对经济增长的影响一直存在着争论,但世界各国普遍将利用外资(尤其是FDI)作为发展本国经济的重要政策。利用1982-2013年中国的相关数据,本文检验了国际资本对经济增长的影响。结果表明:长期来看,国际资本总体上有助于经济增长。其中,FDI和OI与GDP呈正相关关系,PI与GDP呈负相关关系。但2005年之后,国际资本影响国内经济的程度和方向都出现了趋势性变化,并加大了经济波动。因此,我国应适时加强对国际资本流动及其影响的监管和检测,并根据检验结果及时调整外资政策,从而进一步优化外资结构,充分发挥国际资本的经济增长效应。
Although there has been controversy over the impact of international capital on economic growth for a long time, it is common for all countries in the world to make use of foreign capital (especially FDI) as an important policy for developing their own economy. Using the data from 1982 to 2013 in China, this paper examines the impact of international capital on economic growth. The results show that in the long run, international capital generally contributes to economic growth. Among them, FDI and OI have a positive correlation with GDP, while PI and GDP have a negative correlation. However, after 2005, the trend and direction of the impact of international capital on the domestic economy have seen trending changes and increased economic fluctuations. Therefore, our country should strengthen supervision and testing of international capital flow and its influence in due time, and timely adjust the foreign investment policies according to the test results so as to further optimize the foreign investment structure and give full play to the economic growth effect of international capital.