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刘易斯转折点是发展中国家在人口结构演化过程中的重要时段,而阶段产物-人口红利则带来经济增长契机。本文在综合刘易斯转折点、人口红利的相关研究基础上,尝试揭示两者的一致性,进而结合中国国情,从工作年限入手,对传统的刘易斯模型进行了改进和验证。结果表明:现行城市化发展体制是制约进城务工年限的主要因素,通过其工作年限的适当延长,中国刘易斯转折点的来临可以延长10-15年,并由此给出政策建议。
The turning point of Lewis is an important time in the evolution of the demographic structure in developing countries, and the demographic dividend brings with it an opportunity for economic growth. Based on the related research of Lewis turning point and demographic dividend, this article attempts to reveal the consistency of the two. Then according to China's national conditions, this article improves and validates the traditional Lewis model from the working years. The results show that the current urbanization development system is the main factor restricting the length of migrant workers entering the city. With the appropriate extension of their working years, the advent of the turning point of China's Lewis can be extended by 10 to 15 years, and policy recommendations are given accordingly.