今日投资《分析师盈利预测报告》显示,近期分析师整体上调了对A股公司的盈利预测,但即使如此,2005年上市公司的盈利增速仍然呈现小回落的态势。与A股公司业绩整体增速回落相对应,2005年仍然有五大行业盈利继续快速增长。这些“抗周期”的成长性行业,成为我们寻找投资潜力品种所首要关注的焦点。电力设备行业在旺盛需求刺激下,未来几年盈利仍有望保持稳步增长。但由于不少个股前期涨幅已经不小,后续进一步上涨将难以得到投资者认同。建议重点关注那些阶段涨幅相对较少、业绩增长潜力明显的电力设备股。通讯设备行业盈利在2005年走出低谷,随着3G技术即将进入商用,未来通讯设备厂商将面临中长期发展机遇。尤其对于中兴通讯等行业龙头,值得重点关注。纺织品行业盈利在2005年呈现加速上升态势,但中国与欧盟,美国等之间的贸易摩擦,导致中国纺织品出口再次受限,增加了纺织品类公司业绩的不确定性。同时人民币升值也进一步削弱纺织品的出口竞争力,因此,除个别行业龙头以外,纺织品行业的整体投资机会仍不突出。前期运费价格回落以及油价高涨,对水运类公司业绩构成压力,影响了水运类个股短期的表现。但研究员对水运行业2005年的盈利预期仍然乐观。水运行业盈利的高增长预期和股价的持续下跌形成鲜明对照,一定程度上反映出前期投资者对于水运行业的业绩表现过于悲观。这种预期上的偏差,为中长期投资者提供了理想的介入机会。从2005年开始,零售业逐渐步出业绩低谷。并且刺激内需,转变经济增长方式的政策取向,也将为零售业带来中长期机遇。尤其对于那些阶段涨幅相对有限的零售业个股,中长期投资价值仍然突出。 Investment today, “Analysts Earnings Forecast Report” shows that the recent analysts raised the overall earnings forecast for A-share companies, but even so, in 2005 the profitability of listed companies is still showing a slight decline in the trend. Corresponding to the overall growth of A-share companies, the profits of the top five industries continued to grow rapidly in 2005. These “anti-cyclical” growth industries have become the primary focus of our search for investment potential varieties. In the power equipment industry, stimulated by strong demand, the profitability of the next few years is still expected to maintain steady growth. However, due to the fact that many individual stocks have not risen early, it is difficult for investors to agree on the subsequent rise. The proposal focuses on the power equipment stocks with relatively small gains in the period and obvious growth potential. Profits in the communications equipment industry bottomed out in 2005. As the 3G technology is about to enter the commercial market, the future communications equipment manufacturers will face opportunities for medium and long-term development. Especially for ZTE and other industry leaders, it is worth focusing on. Profitability in the textile industry accelerated at an accelerating trend in 2005, but the trade friction between China and the EU, the United States and other countries led to the once again limited export of Chinese textiles and increased the uncertainty of the performance of textile companies. At the same time, the revaluation of the renminbi has further weakened the export competitiveness of textiles. Therefore, the overall investment opportunities in the textile industry are still not prominent, except for the leading industries in other industries. The drop in freight rates and the soaring oil prices in the previous period put pressure on the performance of water transport companies and affected the short-term performance of water transport stocks. However, researchers are still optimistic about the 2005 profit forecast for the shipping industry. The high growth earnings forecast for the water transport industry is in stark contrast to the continuous decline in share prices, which in part reflects the previous investors’ overly pessimistic performance in the water transport industry. This expected deviation provides mid-term and long-term investors with an ideal opportunity to intervene. From 2005 onwards, the retail industry gradually out of low performance. And to stimulate domestic demand and change the economic growth mode of policy orientation, will also bring long-term retail opportunities. Especially for those retail stocks whose growth rate is relatively limited, the medium and long-term investment value is still outstanding.