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[目的/意义]针对采用不同引证网络探测新兴趋势的问题,比较群体动力学方法用于直接引证网络和文献耦合网络上的效能差异。[方法/过程]首先构建并分析直接引证网络、文献耦合网络和同被引网络的特征,然后基于群体动力学方法对文献耦合网络进行实证研究。[结果/结论]对比以往的研究结果发现:群体动力学方法作用于直接引证网络进行新兴趋势的预测结果较基线方法为好,而在文献耦合网络中预测的效果并不比基线方法更佳。
[Purpose / Significance] In response to the problem of using different citation networks to probe emerging trends, a comparative group dynamics approach is used to compare the performance differences between citation networks and literature-coupled networks. [Methods / Processes] Firstly, the features of the citation network, the literature coupling network and the citation network are constructed and analyzed. Then, the literature coupling network is studied empirically based on the group dynamics method. [Results / Conclusions] Compared with the previous studies, we found that the population dynamics method is better than the baseline method in predicting the emerging trend of the direct citation network, and the predicted effect in the literature coupled network is not better than the baseline method.