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浮空器属航空产品,其设计的可靠性直接影响产品的安全性。目前,浮空器产品大多是非批量生产,缺乏大样本数据,可靠性评估可利用区间非概率可靠性理论进行描述。文中论述了非概率可靠性基本理论,通过建立浮空器产品囊体结构失稳数学模型推导了囊体结构区间非概率可靠性指标的计算公式,然后以典型囊体结构件为算例,结合实验给出了囊体结构非概率可靠性指标数据曲线,对比了数值模拟和实验测算结果,得出理论值相对实测值偏保守的结论。非概率可靠性方法可反映结构在不同载荷状态下的可靠程度,对工程应用具有一定的指导作用。
Aerostat is an aviation product, the reliability of its design directly affects the safety of the product. At present, most aerostat products are non-mass-produced, lacking large sample data, and the reliability assessment can be described by the interval non-probabilistic reliability theory. In this paper, the basic theory of non-probabilistic reliability is discussed. The mathematical formula for the unstructured reliability of capsule structure is deduced by establishing mathematical model of structural instability of the capsule. Then, taking typical capsule structure as an example, The experimental data of the non-probabilistic reliability index of the capsule structure are given. The numerical simulation and experimental results are compared. The conclusion is obtained that the theoretical value is relatively conservative. The non-probabilistic reliability method can reflect the reliability of the structure under different load conditions and has some guidance for engineering application.