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目的了解湘西自治州传染病自动预警系统的运行情况,为系统的改进和推广应用提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对湘西自治州2008年7月1日-2010年6月30日期间预警系统(时间模型)运行情况资料进行统计分析。结果预警系统共发送预警信号1 612条,其中固定阈值法预警信号10条,移动百分位数法预警信号1 602条;信号的响应率为100%,阳性率为0.620%。1 602条预警信号的初步核实方式主要是监测数据分析(60.61%),核实结果反馈时间间隔中位数为0.36 h(P25~P75:0.05~1.04),初步核实有11条(0.69%)判断为疑似事件信号,经过现场调查核实最终确定10起暴发事件。10起暴发事件的疾病分布为痢疾2起、流行性感冒8起,预警信号的阳性率分别为0.34%、8.42%;地区分布保靖县6起、龙山县3起、吉首市1起,预警信号的阳性率分别为4.72%、1.05%、0.25%。结论预警系统可以早期发现可能的传染病暴发,但不同地区、不同病种的预警效果存在差别。
Objective To understand the operation of automatic warning system for infectious diseases in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture and provide basis for system improvement and popularization and application. Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data of early warning system (time model) operation in Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2010. The results of early warning system sent a total of 1 612 warning signals, of which 10 were fixed threshold value warning signal and 1 602 mobile percentile warning signal. The signal response rate was 100% and the positive rate was 0.620%. The preliminary verification method of 1 602 warning signals was mainly the monitoring data analysis (60.61%). The median of the feedback time interval of verification results was 0.36 h (P25 ~ P75: 0.05 ~ 1.04), and 11 items (0.69% As the signal of the suspected incident, 10 outbreaks were confirmed after field investigation and verification. 10 cases of outbreaks of the disease distribution for the two cases of dysentery, influenza 8, the positive rate of early warning signals were 0.34%, 8.42%; regional distribution of Baojing County 6, 3 Longshan County, 1 Jishou City, early warning The positive rates of signal were 4.72%, 1.05% and 0.25% respectively. Conclusion The early-warning system can detect possible outbreaks of infectious diseases in early stage, but there are differences in the warning effects of different diseases in different regions.