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地震前的热异常已有许多研究,大多研究得出的异常区域面积过大或者远离震中以至于难以判断震中。用温度相减法研究张北地震前的温度变化,发现震前13天张北附近出现了孤立的增温区,张北站增温5.8℃,是当天整个中国东部地区的最大增温值。增温区长轴为北东向,区内分布有北东向尚义-多伦断裂。震前1天沿北西向张北—渤海断裂带张北的增温也达到最大值,张北地震即发生在这两组断裂汇而不交的部位。将增温区中心预测为震中,误差大概为80km,这一数值结果比目前大多数热异常的研究结果好,显示出气象数据在地震研究中有一定应用价值。同时,气象数据的观测和加工有全国统一的规范,处理起来简单方便,本文提出的温度相减法,简便易行,由于使用的是温度的相对变化,避免了各地小气候不同导致的温度差异。如果结合地震台网观测数据,在地震预测研究中能发挥更好的效果。
There have been many studies on the thermal anomalies before the earthquake. Most of the anomalous regions obtained from the study are too large or far away from the epicenter so that it is difficult to judge the epicenter. Using the temperature subtraction method to study the temperature change before the Zhangbei earthquake, it was found that there was an isolated warming area around Zhangbei 13 days before the earthquake. The temperature increase of Zhangbei Station was 5.8 ℃, which was the maximum temperature increase of the entire eastern China. The long axis of the warming area is north-eastward, and the NE-trending Shangyi-Duolun fault is distributed in the area. One day before the earthquake, the warming along the northwest Zhangbei-Bohai fault zone reached the maximum, and the Zhangbei earthquake occurred in both parts of the fault but not in the intersection. The center of the warming area is predicted to be epicenter with an error of about 80km. This numerical result is better than most of the current thermal anomalies and shows that the meteorological data have certain application value in the earthquake research. At the same time, observation and processing of meteorological data have unified national norms and are simple and convenient to handle. The temperature subtraction method proposed in this paper is simple and convenient. Due to the relative change of temperature, the temperature difference caused by different microclimates is avoided. Combined with the observation data of the seismic network, it can play a better effect in earthquake prediction research.