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在国家系列文件的推动下,各地积极探索采用特许经营、投资补助及财政补贴的方式推行农业废弃物第三方治理模式,如何保障该模式的可持续运营是政府和学者共同关注的问题。本文以可持续运营作为政策补贴效率评价准则,采用入树子系统建模法构建农业废弃物第三方治理模式的系统动力学模型,设置相应的政府补贴政策参数;以江西正和环保工程有限公司罗坊农业废弃物集中治理大型沼气工程为例,通过政策参数调控,对集中供气/沼气发电上网特许价格、有机肥生产/价格补贴、发酵原料成本补贴三项政策的实施效率进行动态仿真分析。结果表明:当前的沼气特许价格能保障企业五年内实现集中供气目标规模;企业发电产能利用率与企业累计收益对沼气发电上网特许价格敏感;要实现有机肥商业化生产必须有合理的有机肥价格补贴。最后,依据政策效率仿真所确定的各政策参数取值参考区间,设计补贴方案,并利用SD仿真实验逐步调整优化补贴方案。
Under the promotion of a series of national documents, various localities have actively explored the implementation of third-party governance models for agricultural waste by means of franchising, investment subsidies and financial subsidies. How to ensure the sustainable operation of this model is a common concern of both government and academics. In this paper, sustainable operation as a policy evaluation criteria for efficiency of subsidies, the use of tree sub-system modeling method to build a third-party governance model of agricultural waste dynamics model, set the appropriate government subsidy policy parameters; and Jiangxi Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd. Luo As an example, a large-scale biogas project for agricultural waste treatment will be conducted through the control of policy parameters to simulate and analyze the implementation efficiency of the three policies of centralized gas supply / biogas power generation network entitlement price, organic fertilizer production / price subsidy and fermentation raw material cost subsidy. The results show that: the current biogas concession price can guarantee the scale of centralized gas supply within five years; the utilization rate of power generation capacity of enterprises and the accumulated revenue of enterprises are sensitive to the concession price of biogas power generation on the Internet; and the commercial production of organic fertilizer must have rational organic fertilizer Price subsidies. Finally, based on the reference interval of the policy parameters determined by the policy efficiency simulation, the subsidy plan is designed and the subsidy plan is adjusted and optimized step by step through the SD simulation experiment.