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产品空间模型预测结构转换的思路是:若一种产品当前不具有出口比较优势而又具备较高的复杂度水平,若其产品密度大,则该产品未来发展成为具有比较优势产品的可能性大。在此基础上,本文采用两种对产品复杂度分类的方法并筛选出满足条件的典型目标产品,研究其比较优势演变是否符合理论预测;并同时进行了相关变量的计量分析。结果表明:典型目标产品的显示性比较优势指数的变动趋势不支持理论预测,而结果更是与理论相悖;进一步的计量分析显示产品密度对显示性比较优势指数的变化具有显著性的负面影响,因此,产品空间模型在我国产业结构转换的预测实践中并不有效。
The idea of product space model predicting structure transformation is that if a product does not currently have the comparative advantage of export and has a high level of complexity, if the product has a large density, then the product is likely to have a comparative advantage in the future . On this basis, this paper adopts two methods to classify the product complexity and screened out the typical target products that meet the conditions, to study whether the evolution of the comparative advantage conforms to the theoretical prediction. At the same time, the econometric analysis of the related variables is carried out. The results show that the trend of the display comparative advantage index of the typical target product does not support the theoretical prediction, and the result is contrary to the theory; further measurement analysis shows that the product density has a significant negative impact on the change of the display comparative advantage index, Therefore, the product space model is not effective in the prediction of the industrial structure transformation in our country.