论文部分内容阅读
目的定量评估乌鲁木齐城区主要大气污染物二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)、颗粒物(PM10)对居民呼吸系统疾病的影响,建立大气污染对人群健康影响的预测模型。方法采用时间序列的广义相加模型(GAM),在控制了时间的长期趋势、季节趋势、周效应、气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,研究乌鲁木齐市区2005年1月1日-2009年12月31日大气污染物浓度与居民所患呼吸系统疾病人数的关联性。结果 (1)大气中SO2、NO2、PM10浓度每增加10μg/m3,呼吸系统疾病日住院人数分别增加0.85%(95%CI:0.27～1.36)、0.56%(95%CI:0.24～1.21)、0.63%(95%CI:0.46～1.65)。(2)研究期间的主要污染物浓度总体呈下降趋势,污染较严重的时间段主要集中在2007年和2008年。(3)研究期间呼吸系统疾病日住院人数不仅持续增加,而且是呈周期性的波动存在(夏季偏低,冬季偏高)。结论 (1)乌鲁木齐呼吸系统疾病日住院人数增加的主要污染物是SO2、PM10,NO2影响较小;(2)研究期间乌鲁木齐市3种主要污染物中浓度较高的是SO2、PM10;(3)3种主要污染物与气象因素存在相关性。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effects of SO2, NO2 and PM10 on respiratory diseases in residents of Urumqi and establish a prediction model of the impact of air pollution on human health. Methods A generalized additive time series model (GAM) was used to study the influence of long-term trend of time, seasonal trends, weekly effects, meteorological factors and other confounders on Urumqi urban area from January 1, 2005 to December 2009 The correlation between the concentration of air pollutants and the number of respiratory diseases suffered by residents on January 31. Results (1) The number of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases increased by 0.85% (95% CI: 0.27-1.36), 0.56% (95% CI: 0.24-1.21) for every 10μg / m3 increase in the concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 in the atmosphere, 0.63% (95% CI: 0.46-1.65). (2) The concentration of major pollutants in the study period generally showed a downward trend, while the period of more serious pollution concentrated in 2007 and 2008. (3) The number of hospital days for respiratory diseases not only continued to increase, but also fluctuated cyclically during the study period (low in summer and high in winter). Conclusions (1) The main pollutants that increase the number of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in Urumqi are SO2, PM10 and NO2. (2) The concentrations of SO2 and PM10 in the three main pollutants in Urumqi during the study period are relatively high There are correlations between the three main pollutants and meteorological factors.