概述了干扰管理理论的内涵、意义以及目标,依据未来不确定因素引起飞机备件需求量变化以及备件供应时限性增强的实际情况,创建了时限一致度算子,优化了备件需求泊松分布模型,提高了备件供应的精确度,并选取了优化后的模型中的多个参量,进行了多因素的扰动性分析,最后构造了算例,验证了本方法的科学性和有效性. The connotation, significance and target of disturbance management theory are summarized. Based on the actual situation that the future uncertainties cause the demand of aircraft spare parts change and the time limitation of spare parts supply, the time consistency operator is established and the Poisson distribution model of spare parts demand is optimized. The accuracy of the spare parts supply is improved, and several parameters in the optimized model are selected, and the multi-factor perturbation analysis is carried out. Finally, an example is given to verify the scientificity and effectiveness of the method.