论文部分内容阅读
先引进广义IOWA算子,建立广义IOWA算子组合预测模型.该模型与一般的组合预测方法的不同在于组合预测的赋权系数与预测精度有着紧密联系而与单项预测模型关系不大.这是组合预测方法的一种新的可变赋权方法.在此基础上建立基于广义IOWA算子的税收组合预测模型,并通过与指数平滑方法、线性回归预测方法和灰色预测方法进行比较,发现组合预测模型既稳定又精确.
Firstly, the generalized IOWA operator is introduced to establish a generalized IOWA operator portfolio forecasting model, which is different from the general composite forecasting approach in that the weighting of the forecasting is closely related to the forecasting accuracy, but not to the single forecasting model A new variable weighting method based on combination forecasting method is proposed.Based on this, a tax portfolio forecasting model based on generalized IOWA operator is established and compared with exponential smoothing method, linear regression forecasting method and gray forecasting method, The prediction model is both stable and accurate.