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一般的观点认为,为应对全球经济增长势头的趋缓,保证中国经济的持续增长,中国政府提出在2002年继续实行积极的财政政策,是当然之举。分析表明,这一政策选择面临消费、投资、通货膨胀和财政风险等条件约束。中国加入WTO危机对财政政策的实施效应带来更多的不确定性。市场经济的实践使人们的预期更加理性化,财政负担及其“代际”转移不能不成为政府决策考虑的因素。鉴此,积极的财政政策在实施中应通过调整结构、提供良好的预期,来保证其可持续性。
The general view is that, in response to the slowdown of the global economic growth and the sustained growth of China’s economy, the Chinese government proposes to continue implementing the proactive fiscal policy in 2002 as a matter of course. Analysis shows that this policy choice is subject to such constraints as consumption, investment, inflation and fiscal risks. The crisis of China’s accession to the WTO brings more uncertainty to the implementation effect of fiscal policy. The practice of market economy makes people’s expectations more rationalized, and the financial burden and its “intergenerational” transfer can not but become the factors for government decision-making. In view of this, an active fiscal policy should ensure its sustainability by adjusting its structure and providing good expectations.