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葡萄根瘤蚜(Viteus vitifoliae Fitch)是源自北美的外来入侵害虫,对我国葡萄产业具有严重威胁。本研究应用最大熵(Max Ent)生态位模型和地理信息系统(GIS),预测了葡萄根瘤蚜在我国的潜在适生区,采用ROC曲线分析法验证了预测结果,对其在我国各葡萄主产省份的适生区面积比例进行了统计,并对影响葡萄根瘤蚜分布的各种环境因子进行了分析。结果表明:葡萄根瘤蚜在我国有广泛的潜在分布区,适生度较高的地区主要集中于华东沿海、黄土高原和华中地区,经纬范围大致为100°E—124°E,24°N—43°N;该种在除新疆之外的主要葡萄生产省份均具有较高的适生性,潜在的适生区远大于目前的分布范围,仍有巨大的入侵潜力和风险;葡萄根瘤蚜入侵区分布主要受温度(尤其是低温)的影响,水分和土壤质地属性对葡萄根瘤蚜分布的限制作用明显不及温度条件;在未来气候变暖的趋势下,葡萄根瘤蚜的适生范围有可能向北、向高海拔地区偏移。
Viteus vitifoliae Fitch is an exotic invasive pest originating in North America, which poses a serious threat to the grape industry in China. In this study, Max Ent niche model and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict the potential adaptive region of phylloxera in China. The prediction results were validated by ROC curve analysis. The proportion of the suitable area of the productive provinces in the producing provinces were statistically analyzed, and various environmental factors affecting the distribution of the phylloxera were analyzed. The results showed that there were a wide range of potential distributions of phylloxera in China. The regions with higher fitness were mainly concentrated in East China Sea, Loess Plateau and Central China. The latitudes and longitudes ranged from 100 ° E-124 ° E to 24 ° N- 43 ° N. This species has high adaptability in all the major grape producing provinces except Xinjiang. The potential suitable habitat area is much larger than the current distribution and still has huge invasion potential and risk. The distribution is mainly affected by temperature (especially low temperature), and the limiting effect of water and soil texture on the distribution of phylloxera phyllophages is obviously less than that of temperature. In the future trend of climate warming, the suitable range of suitable phylloxera , Offset to high altitude.