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直接应用GM(1,1)模型对高速公路的经济效益进行后评价可能得到病态的评价结论;本文通过缓冲算子技术对建模原始数据进行预处理,消除冲击扰动对GM(1,1)模型预测结果的影响,在此基础上构建了高速公路经济效益后评价模型^s(1)(k+1)=(s(0)(1)-b/a)×e-ak+b/a;将该模型应用于渝长高速公路经济效益的后评价,得到了高速公路的修建对地方经济发展具有拉动效应的合理结论;研究成果对丰富与完善后评价建模方法,促进灰色模型与实际问题的有效对接具有重要作用。
The GM (1,1) model can directly evaluate the economic benefits of the expressway, which may lead to ill-advised conclusion. This paper preprocesses the modeling raw data by using the buffer operator to eliminate the influence of the impact disturbance on GM (1,1) (1) (1) -b / a) × e-ak + b / a is established after the economic evaluation model of expressway is built based on the influence of the model prediction results. a; Applying the model to the post-evaluation of the economic benefits of Yu-Chang Freeway, we get the reasonable conclusion that the construction of expressway has a pulling effect on the local economic development. The research results are helpful to enrich and improve the post-evaluation modeling method, Effective docking of practical problems plays an important role.