论文部分内容阅读
本文基于中国1999Q1—2015Q1省际面板数据,利用PVAR模型研究中国住房价格波动对居民消费的影响及其非对称性。实证结果表明,房价总体波动对居民消费的影响虽为正向但持续时间较短;房价上涨与下跌对居民消费存在随时间变化的非对称性影响:金融危机前房价上涨会抑制居民消费,房价下跌短期内对居民消费则具有一定的正向影响;但金融危机后房价上涨冲击对居民消费产生了持续3个季度正向影响,房价下跌冲击对居民消费主要表现为负向影响,且房价下跌比上涨的影响程度更大。这种结果意味着房价上涨的正向财富效应越来越明显,同时房价下跌对居民消费的抑制影响也有所加大。
Based on the panel data of provinces in China during Q1Q2015Q1, this paper uses PVAR model to study the influence and asymmetry of housing price in China on household consumption. The empirical results show that although the overall fluctuation of housing prices has a positive impact on residential consumption but the duration is short, the asymmetric effect of rising and falling house prices on residents ’consumption over time shows that the rise of house prices before the financial crisis will restrain the residents’ However, the impact of rising housing prices after the financial crisis has had a positive impact on residential consumption for three consecutive quarters. The drop in housing prices has a negative impact on household consumption and negatively affected housing prices Larger than the impact of the rise. This result means that the positive wealth effect of rising house prices is more and more obvious, and the impact of falling house prices on resident consumption also increases.