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在所有不利于情报分析的因素中,那些根植于人们思维过程中的因素是最主要的也是最难对付的。情报分析实质上是一种思维过程,但是长期以来对大脑工作状况缺乏了解妨碍了我们对情报分析过程的理解和把握。认知偏见就是影响情报分析人员作出客观分析的一个重要因素,只有充分地对其进行分析并找出消除其负面影响的对策,才能保证情报分析成果最大限度的发挥作用,辅助情报用户作出决策。
Among all the factors that are unfavorable to intelligence analysis, the factors that are rooted in people’s thinking process are the most important and the most difficult to deal with. Intelligence analysis is essentially a thought process, but a long history of lack of understanding of the workings of the brain hinders our understanding and grasp of the intelligence analysis process. Cognitive bias is an important factor that affects the analysts to make objective analysis. Only by fully analyzing them and finding out the countermeasures to eliminate their negative effects can we ensure that the results of intelligence analysis can maximize the effectiveness and help the information users to make decisions.