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有关中国实际GDP增长率的官方统计数据是否失真的问题已经引起国内和国际研究者们的关注。与此密切相关的一个问题是如何评价中国目前正在进行中的市场化改革并预测改革的趋势。本文指出了中国的经济改革中鼓舞人心的方面,同时也讨论了中国社会中正在显露的中央集权的影响。这两种不同的力量预示着中国经济正处于结构和制度变化的转折点,而这些变化对中国长期经济前景的影响可能远远超过短期经济增长的大幅波动。
The question of whether the official statistics on China’s real GDP growth are distorted has drawn the attention of domestic and international researchers. A closely related issue is how to evaluate China’s current marketization reform and predict the trend of reform. This article points to the inspiring aspects of China’s economic reforms and the effects of the emerging centralization of power in Chinese society. These two different forces indicate that the Chinese economy is at a turning point in the structural and institutional changes that have a far greater impact on China’s long-term economic outlook than the sharp fluctuations in short-term economic growth.