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国内生产总值是衡量一个国家经济的最重要的指标,国内生产总值的增长率体现出一个国家的经济是过热增长还是缓慢增长,本文采用实证研究分析,对1990年至2011年我国gdp增长率变化进行描述性统计分析和计量经济模型ARMA—DDV分析,进一步研究我国近二十年来经济发展的变化规律,并从中分析出现经济过热的内在原因,结合实际,提出自己的观点和建议。本文的研究结果使我们对经济发展有更深的了解,为社会提供科学依据。
GDP is a measure of a country’s economy, the most important indicator of the growth rate of GDP reflects a country’s economy is overheating or slow growth, the empirical analysis of this paper, from 1990 to 2011 China’s gdp growth Rate of change of descriptive statistical analysis and econometric model ARMA-DDV analysis to further study China’s economic development in the past 20 years the law of change, and analyze the inherent causes of economic overheating, combined with the reality, put forward their own opinions and suggestions. The results of this paper give us a deeper understanding of economic development and provide a scientific basis for society.