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基于计量经济学方法,首次计算了珠江口毗邻海域生态系统的经济价值和不同规划期的水污染经济损失,从而间接获得了碧海行动计划实施后将产生的经济效益数据,结合计划投资,对珠江口毗邻海域碧海行动计划的经济损益进行了评估。结果显示,珠江口毗邻海域总经济价值为2015亿元/a,现状由于水污染造成的经济损失高达332.9亿元/a,约占总经济价值量的16.5%;碧海行动计划实施后,经预测,不同规划期(2015年、2020年、2030年)内的水污染经济损失将分别减为:91、77和55亿元/a,产生的经济效益相应分别为241.9、255.9和277.9亿元/a。珠江口毗邻海域碧海行动计划投资项目的净现值为873.7亿元。
Based on the econometrics method, the economic value of the ecosystem of the adjacent waters in the Pearl River Estuary and the economic loss of water pollution in different planning periods are calculated for the first time, and the economic benefits data that will be generated after the implementation of the Blue Sea Action Plan are indirectly obtained. Combined with the planned investment, The economic profit and loss of the Blue Sea Action Plan adjacent to the port was assessed. The results show that the total economic value of the estuary adjacent to the Pearl River Estuary is RMB ¥ 2015 billion / a. The economic losses due to water pollution are as high as RMB ¥ 33.29 billion / a, accounting for 16.5% of the total economic value. After the implementation of the Blue Sea Action Plan, The economic loss of water pollution in different planning periods (2015, 2020 and 2030) will be reduced to 91,77 and 5.5 billion yuan / a, respectively, resulting in economic benefits of 241.9, 255.9 and 27.79 billion yuan / a . The net present value of the investment projects of the Blue Sea Action Plan adjacent to the Pearl River estuary was 87.37 billion yuan.