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以长江中下游平原7个省(市)的19个地区作为样点,统计分析了各样点近36年(1970—2005年)水稻始穗前15d至始穗后20d内日最高气温≥35℃的时空分布特点;并根据全球气候渐变模型GISS GCM Transient B Runs生成的研究区域2030、2050年的气候渐变情景,分析了该地区未来水稻孕穗开花期≥35℃高温逆境的时空演变趋势。结果表明:近36年来长江中下游的早稻孕穗开花期出现高温日数的上升趋势显著,未来气候情景下水稻逆境指标出现日数最多的是单季稻,其次依次为早稻、后季稻;双季稻种植区,在未来气候变化中,长江中游地区温度逆境出现日数将大于下游地区。研究区域水稻气候产量的增减与该地区水稻逆境指标的关系说明,高温导致的颖花败育是水稻减产的重要原因;未来气候变化的两种(2030、2050)情景下,长江中游地区的减产幅度大于长江下游地区,减产幅度最大的是长江中游地区的后季稻。
Taking 19 areas of 7 provinces (cities) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as samples, the maximum daily air temperature of ≥35 was calculated from 15 days before heading stage to 20 days after heading stage in nearly 36 years (1970-2005) ℃. According to the gradual climate change scenarios of 2030 and 2050 in the study area generated by GISS GCM Transient B Runs, the spatial and temporal evolution trend of high temperature adversity of bryophyte ≥35 ℃ in the future was analyzed. The results showed that in the recent 36 years, the rising days of high temperature in the flowering stage of early rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River had a significant upward trend. In the future, the index of adversity of rice in the climate scenario was the single season rice, followed by the early rice and the second season rice, , In the future climate change, the temperature adversity appears in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River will be greater than the downstream areas. The relationship between the increase and decrease of climatic output of rice in the study area and the index of rice adversity in this area shows that the spike failure caused by high temperature is the important reason for the decrease of rice yield. Under the two climate change scenarios (2030 and 2050) in the future, The rate of decrease is larger than that of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The largest decrease is the latter-season paddy in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.